So how did these model portfolios do in 2019? The combined portfolio scores are on the performance page(weighting longs 2/3rds and shorts 1/3rd but the individual components are below:
The NAPS discretionary shorts performance for the year was -11.6% so pretty good. The shorts were very volatile – plenty of 100% swings in both directions. Noteably Codemasters was up 73.7%, it’s StockRank went from 25 to 75 over the year. The SR hit 57 in March so perhaps this might have been a trigger to cut the position if that was permissible within the rules. This would have kept the individual stock damage to around 40%.
The Mechanical short portfolio was up 33.6% – terrible! Silence therapeutics was up 570%! Despite this the comapnies stock rank is still 25 so a stock rank stop loss wouldnt have helped. Excluding this outlier then the portfolio would have returned +4% performance – what a diffrence one huge outlier makes. Team17 the second biggest gainer hit a stock rank of 68 in April and a stop loss here would have cut the damage to the portfolio in half. At a glance – it doesnt appear that any of the shorts falling (ie favourable direction) YoY had a rising SR that would have got stopped out by such a tactic during the year.
The mechanical long up 10.6% benefitted from 2 big winners. Notably about a third of the stocks now have a SR under 70 after one year.
The NAPS discretionary long portfolio was up 23.4% – a solid performance. Noticeable it had only 5 losers compared to the mechanical long’s 10 losers.
I’ll be picking the 2020 portfolios shortly and will post their composition.
Below are the portfolios and their 1 year performance.
