Time for a brief review of my 2016 NAPS performance …  overall a 17.8% gain. Not bad at all – not quite last years 24.2% gain but respectable nonetheless. Looking through the individual companies  a stop loss at circa 20% would have saved me from Genel and Fairpoint big losses but on the other hand would have triggered for Empresaria which subsequently recovered.

 

Genel is one of the only oil stocks not to benefit from my correct call that oil wouldn’t stay at $33/barrel. Fairpoint reminded me of the danger in buying into a story. In truth the numbers didn’t match the story – i assumed they would catch up – ie i trusted management. That’s something i’ve learnt not to do without very good reason.

BooHoo had a barnstorming year and personally I sold out at around 80p. Unbelievably its continued onto 130p to my dismay – but the NAPS rule based process meant it was not sold and so contributed nicely to the 17.8% gain.

I’m slightly puzzled why Capital Drilling wasn’t included – it has been my top pick for over a year now and scores highly in the stock ranks. I’ll make sure to include it this year..

2017 NAPS to be published shortly…

Out of interest – if I had kept with my 2015 NAPS I’d have made a 13% loss! The 2016 Naps heatmap looks similar to at the start of the year  -so it’ll be interesting to see how it does in a years time.

I informally keep track of short calls I make on various companies over the last 2 years. I post them all on my own ADVFN thread and log the opening and closing prices in the header. I post in the message box when I open and close a position so the dates and prices can be verified.

So far I’ve done outstandingly well.

32 short calls initiated in 2015 closed. 6 short calls initiated in 2016 closed. Overall i have got 32 correct and 5 where i’ve made a loss. That’s an 86% correct call track record!

43 total slots closed since inception with average profit of 36.8%. For those opened in 2015, average gain was 41.2% and for those opened in 2016 average profit was 32.4%. This ignores positions still open (24 of them)

If anyone else is interested in potential sort calls, do come and discuss them. This thread is a record of my ‘conviction’ shorts -ass opposed to my watchlist which i store in a stockopedia portfolio to keep tabs on.

Note this is a ‘fantasy’ short portfolio. I may have real life positions or may not. I wish they matched exactly as my real world performance has fallen far short of the fantasy portfolio…. More to be revealed in a separate post but safe to say I have learnt much about the art of shorting the last 2 years including sizing positions correctly and trying to second guess the market!