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Share Bear

Since starting investing years ago i have moved from barely tracking overall performance to annual reviews which attempt to track overall portfolio performance but this is hindered by the my various accounts, cash balances and leverages that have been used. My investing style was varied, entirely discretionary and ad-hoc.

I would like to more clearly track portfolio performance and furthermore i want to improve my investing returns which have led me to create a number of factor based systematic portfolios – heavily influenced by the collation and summary of investing research by the team at Stockopedia.

On my ‘Performance’ page you will see the portfolios i have ran in the past and those i will either continue or create.

Personal/StockRanks NAPS Mix (discontinued) portfolio.

This is the model portfolio i’ve tracked on this blog for 3 years based loosely on a NAPS High StockRank portfolio. I selected at the start of each year a numer of companies that either had a fairly high stock rank or that i simply found attractive for one reason or another. I will no longer continue this portfolio as i moved to a stricter rules based approach.

A year ago I created the following model portfolios to track – some of which are entirely mechanical, some are mechanical but allow some personal discretion, some also allow short positions. My hope is to build up a track record over time and discover whether i can beat the mechanical portfolio with a little of my own stock picking (within rules).

I’ll post the 2019 results in a separate post – but realise that i need to lay out the portfolios and rules first!

Description and Summary of Portfolios

StockRanks NAPS (long/short)

  1. A Portfolio of approximately 36 to 40 stocks. Half being long and half being shorts.
  2. Longs are stocks with a market cap > £20M and i pick two stocks (StockRank > 90) of my choice from each of 10 sectors on Stockopedia.
  3. Shorts are half the position size of longs with mkt cap > £150m and i select 2 stocks with StockRank <30 from each of 10 sectors. I can choose not to pick a short if none fit the criteria. In working out annual performance i will assume longs make 2/3rds of the annual performance figure and shorts 1/3rd.
  4. I have some choice in which stocks to choose as long as they fit the above rules i can select the ones i want – often this gives me a choice from a couple that meet the criteria. I may want to look at price chart for shorts for example to avoid bottoming or curving up charts.
  5. Portfolio revised and re-balanced annually.

StockRanks NAPS (long only)

This is the long only part of the above portfolio.

Mechanical StockRanks NAPS

This mimics the above portfolio but with no discretion – simply choose the highest or lowest ranked stocks.

  1. Longs are stocks with market cap > £20M and the two highest ranking stocks from each of 10 sectors are selected.
  2. Shorts are half size of longs with mkt cap > £150m and the 2 lowest from each of ten sectors are selected.
  3. Shorts are selected even if the stock rank of the lowest in the sector is not *that* low.
  4. I have no discretion or choice in stock selection – it is entirely rules based.
  5. Portfolio revised and re-balanced annually.

UK Large Caps StockRanks NAPS

  1. A portfolio of approximately 20 companies.
  2. Each company must be > £1bn minimum market cap at selection.
  3. I pick two stocks (StockRank > 90) of my choice from each of 10 sectors. If there are insufficent stocks with StockRank >90 I may move to choose from stocks >80 else I will not select a stock if none fit this criteria.
  4. Each stock will be a 4.5% position.
  5. I can then choose 3 positions at my complete discretion as long as they are over £1bn market cap. For 2019 these were tetragon and randgold.

Personal Purely Discretionary

  1. This is my bucket for purely discretionary stock picks and trading. This may include longs and shorts. In 2017 I included crypto currency trades in this portfolio however I may separate these in the future.
  2. Can include growth/excitement style.
  3.  The place where I can put resource companies, high growth and other stocks thta may not necessarily have a high stock rank.

General Guidance for personal portfolios.

  1. I want to be able to select high stock rank companies that other investors online also really like – it’s a double confirmation imo of a stocks appeal.
  2. Use stops (and limits) for every position so constant monitoring is not required.
  3. I only sell every 3 months – else I use limit orders. I can open a new position with a stop at any time.

Family Member Portfolio – Discretionary

This is a portfolio i’ve managed on a purely discretionary basis for a family member which is now discontinued as money was required for a property purchase.

UK Stock Challenge Competition

This is the 5 stock portfolio selected at every year under alias shauniekent.

I haven’t posted in a long time and have neglected to post a 2018 NAPS style model portfolio. I explained in my 2017 NAPSesque post that i was nervous about the market and wanted to stay partly in cash. The FTSE 350 actually ended the year c. 8% up whereas my portfolio which was 50% cash ended the year about 1% up! So ultimately  ayear of lost potential gains.

The truth is that i continued to feel nervous at the start of 2018 and didn’t pick a 2018 NAPS portfolio….. but sitting here bearish indefinately is unsatisfactory….

2018 is showing a decline in the FTSE 350 so far. Perhaps a NAPS style portfolio would have outperformed. My wider market nervousness has led me to increase holdings of cash in my personal portfolio and to buy some put options on certain overpvied US stocks (Netflix, Tesla, Shopify, Snapchat) but what i really want to explore is the idea of a more systematic Stockopedia NAPS style long/short portfolio whereby we pair the highest ranking stocks in a portfolio with some short positions in the lowest ranking. Watch out for future blog posts on this…


So i wrote a post with my NAPs for 2017 but being short of time, and on the whole nervous about the markets i didnt post it. I then resolved to post my NAPS on the basis that i’d be notionally 50% invested, holding the other 50% as cash until a point in the year where i wanted to invest the remainder.

But i still haven’t posted. I just feel too nervous with Brexit, Trump, recession risk in the US etc etc. I know there are alwys things to be worried about and i have no long term experience – i just think i want to to sit out for a while.  I’ve decided to remain ‘in cash’ for the foreseeable future. I may publish my NAPS at some point in the year – else if i dont, my performance should be judged as holding cash against the market.


Here are the NAPS i thought about posting for 2017 (as it happens, i would have been up 5%). It’s also worth noting that in my real world portfolio i am still invested, but may well go towards cash at any point. Obviously NAPS are meant to be a but then forget until the period end.
BLVN Bowleven
CAPD Capital Drilling
CRAW Crawshaw
EMR Empresaria
FLYB Flybe
GENL Genel Energy
IGG IG Group
ITQ Interquest
NTBR Northern Bear
NTG Northgate
OPHR Ophir Energy
REC Record
RBG Revolution Bars
SAND Sandstorm Gold
SLW Silver Wheaton
SLW Silver Wheaton
WTM Waterman
ZMNO Zamano

Time for a brief review of my 2016 NAPS performance …  overall a 17.8% gain. Not bad at all – not quite last years 24.2% gain but respectable nonetheless. Looking through the individual companies  a stop loss at circa 20% would have saved me from Genel and Fairpoint big losses but on the other hand would have triggered for Empresaria which subsequently recovered.


Genel is one of the only oil stocks not to benefit from my correct call that oil wouldn’t stay at $33/barrel. Fairpoint reminded me of the danger in buying into a story. In truth the numbers didn’t match the story – i assumed they would catch up – ie i trusted management. That’s something i’ve learnt not to do without very good reason.

BooHoo had a barnstorming year and personally I sold out at around 80p. Unbelievably its continued onto 130p to my dismay – but the NAPS rule based process meant it was not sold and so contributed nicely to the 17.8% gain.

I’m slightly puzzled why Capital Drilling wasn’t included – it has been my top pick for over a year now and scores highly in the stock ranks. I’ll make sure to include it this year..

2017 NAPS to be published shortly…

Out of interest – if I had kept with my 2015 NAPS I’d have made a 13% loss! The 2016 Naps heatmap looks similar to at the start of the year  -so it’ll be interesting to see how it does in a years time.

I’ve chosen a selection of ‘NAPS’ for 2016. To recap the idea being to see if my choice of companies (no changes allowed during the year) beats my personal portfolio by the end of the year and how it compares to the Stockopedia mechanical NAPS and FTSE/AIM indexes. I’m also hoping to establish over a long time frame whether i can successfully pick stocks.

I’m also hoping that my personal knowledge and insight might help to boost performance against a mechanical selection…. or ultimately will my over confidence be shown for what it is. I think the latter may be proved correct but i can’t help but hope otherwise 🙂

This years selection:



And using the Stockopedia value vs quality ranks bubble chart we get the following picture:


This gives me confidence i’ve chosen generally better value & higher quality companies. The outliers are the oil stocks, a gold miner and BooHoo who i believe has potential to be a long term star.

These selected ‘low stock rank’ companies are the key differences between a Stockopedia stock rank selected portfolio and my NAPS where i use a bit of personal judgement.

Oil, which i may do a separate post on if i have time, cannot i believe stay at $33 a barrel for much longer – its below the cost of production for large parts of the world, capex is being cut leading to lower future supply and ultimately current supply is only 1 – 1.5mmbl/day greater than demand. Total supply is about 95mmbl so the margin is actually quite small. Figures show global oil demand is continuing to rise something like 1.5mmbl/day each year and supply i’m sure will be showing signs of decreasing imminently – due to natural oil field decline rates which are anywhere between 8% and 3% annually (this is where if companies do not invest in their producing oil fields, production actually falls away – it needs continuous investment to maintain, let alone increase). Hence i think supply will fall below demand within the next 2 years with potential for a price spike. Oil in this sense is perhaps unlike other commodities eg copper where mine production does not drop away with significant capex cuts, whereas oil field production does. Anyway – i think ignoring the media headlines and doing  a little research of the fundamentals suggests that this may be a once in a generation buying opportunity. For some good discussion on this see here.

BooHoo looks like an excellent GARP stock and as most of us know, growth stocks rarely look cheap and investors often over pay for growth, however i thin with BooHoo at 36p you are not. Paulypilot has done plenty of analysis and i agree with it. You can find some of it here, here and here.

Oh and Randgold Resources. Im not a gold bull, i’ve researched it and there are so many divided opinions from end of the world as we know it survivalists advocating stockpiling of gold coins so those who look at gold as nothing more than a pet rock. I’m neither, but if the price falls below global costs of production i’m interested. Assuming demand remains unchanged, supply must decline in the medium term. Gold is not far from this point globally by some reports. Many gold miners will be high grading and cutting back on exploration. If the price remains as it is at levels that discourage exploration then at some future point supply will fall below demand as mines around the world are depleted. No-one knows when this will be but i’m certain there will be another great gold bull run again at some point in the future. This could be 5 years from now so i’ll keep watching and waiting for clues, with only a modest exposure through one of the best gold miners there is.

Further posts if time allows will give some detail on why i think each of the selected companies will do well.

All the best,


At the start of 2015, inspired by stockopedias ‘NAPs’ i put together a portfolio of companies i thought would do well in 2015 based on high stock ranks, recommendations from respected investors and my own research. It’s a fantasy fund but the idea being that i wouldn’t tinker, by or sell, but would measure performance again in one years time. There are no rules – it’s simply what i think might do well, with little risk of blowing up. Part fun, part experiment – would i do better than my real money portfolio where i’m certainly more footloose and fancy free?

The answer is yes it did. I like to bottom fish, buy ‘cheap commodities’ and short as well as buy ‘quality’ or ‘value’ companies for real. It’s looking like my NAPs approach works better. I didn’t post my picks at the start of 2015 so you’ll have to take my word for it, but over the year they showed a gain of 24.2%.

CWK Cranswick
KLR Keller
HWDN Howden Joinery
IRV Interserve
WTM Waterman
BVXP Bioventix
ETQ Energy Technique
LTHM James Latham
SPRP Sprue Aegis
UNG Universe
VLK Vislink
ZYT Zytronic

Quite impressive against FTSE 250’s gain of c. 9% and Aim all share gain of c. 4%. But Ed Crofts mechanical NAPS made 43.4%!! Thats really quite impressive.

With this in mind i select my 2016 NAPS. Can i beat the mechanical Stockopedia NAPS or does my human subjectivity lead me to under perform again….