Model Portfolios for 2020

January 1st, 2020 | Posted by shauniekent in Uncategorized - (0 Comments)

 

The NAPS discretionary long has a mid cap blend bias whereas the NAPS discretionary short has a mid cap growth bias. There were no longs or shorts within the telecoms sector to select that fit the criteria.

Again i find it difficult choosing stocks within the rules as i often don’t have an opnion or i simply don’t want to buy housebuilders for example! But the rules are there for a purpose and i follow them. I was more than happy to include Capital Drilling and HAT who i believe are both going to benefit from a rising gold price.

I find the shorts much easier to pick however I did not like having to pick Hurricane Energy as a mechanical short – i have picked this as one of my 5 stocks for the stockchallenge.co.uk annual competition!

The selections for 2020 are below.

NAPS Discretionary Long 2020

NAPS Discretionary Short 2020

Mech NAPS Short 2020

Mech NAPS Long 2020

So how did these model portfolios do in 2019? The combined portfolio scores are on the performance page(weighting longs 2/3rds and shorts 1/3rd but the individual components are below:

The NAPS discretionary shorts performance for the year was -11.6% so pretty good. The shorts were very volatile – plenty of 100% swings in both directions. Noteably Codemasters was up 73.7%, it’s StockRank went from 25 to 75 over the year. The SR hit 57 in March so perhaps this might have been a trigger to cut the position if that was permissible within the rules. This would have kept the individual stock damage to around 40%.

The Mechanical short portfolio was up 33.6% – terrible! Silence therapeutics was up 570%! Despite this the comapnies stock rank is still 25 so a stock rank stop loss wouldnt have helped. Excluding this outlier then the portfolio would have returned +4% performance – what a diffrence one huge outlier makes. Team17 the second biggest gainer hit a stock rank of 68 in April and a stop loss here would have cut the damage to the portfolio in half. At a glance – it doesnt appear that any of the shorts falling (ie favourable direction) YoY had a rising SR that would have got stopped out by such a tactic during the year.

The mechanical long up 10.6% benefitted from 2 big winners. Notably about a third of the stocks now have a SR under 70 after one year.

The NAPS discretionary long portfolio was up 23.4% – a solid performance. Noticeable it had only 5 losers compared to the mechanical long’s 10 losers.

I’ll be picking the 2020 portfolios shortly and will post their composition.

Below are the portfolios and their 1 year performance.

It’s a year since I created a rules based dummy portfolio which I’ve been tracking on Stockopedia’s fantasy funds. The aim of this was to see if I can’t beat an imagined institutional fund, by only investing in larger companies in an attempt to beat the market.
I also created some other model portfolios with which I want to track long term performance and I’ll try and get round to posting these before their annual review at Christmas.

I’m calling it ‘UK Large Caps StockRanks NAPS’. The rules for the first model portfolio are as follows:

  • Approx 20 companies. Each stock circa 4.5% position.
  • Each company must be >£1billion market cap
  • Pick of 2 stocks from each of Stockopedia’s ten sectors with stockrank >90. If there are none I will relax this to SR>80. If there are still no matches, I will not select a company.

I may choose up to 3 companies above $1m market cap at entirely my own discretion. For the year passed I selected tetragon and Randgold.

So how did I do? A rather disappointing -2.4% slightly under the FTSE350 performance I chose as a benchmark.


There was a broad range of winners and losers.

So on to this year’s picks. Following the rules most sectors gave me very little choice with only 2 or 3 companies within the criteria. Only utilities had less then 1 company with a stock rank above 80. Interestingly this year the selections are less recognisable than last year.
I want gold exposure so I’ve found two miners in Acacia Mining and Centamin from perhaps only 3 gold miners to choose from. I’ve also included IG Group.

 

Fiscal Responsibility

October 9th, 2018 | Posted by shauniekent in Uncategorized - (0 Comments)

I forgot to publish and share but this made me chuckle from the Mcturra blog…. well if you don’t laugh you might cry.

Democracy is doomed

I haven’t posted in a long time and have neglected to post a 2018 NAPS style model portfolio. I explained in my 2017 NAPSesque post that i was nervous about the market and wanted to stay partly in cash. The FTSE 350 actually ended the year c. 8% up whereas my portfolio which was 50% cash ended the year about 1% up! So ultimately  ayear of lost potential gains.

The truth is that i continued to feel nervous at the start of 2018 and didn’t pick a 2018 NAPS portfolio….. but sitting here bearish indefinately is unsatisfactory….

2018 is showing a decline in the FTSE 350 so far. Perhaps a NAPS style portfolio would have outperformed. My wider market nervousness has led me to increase holdings of cash in my personal portfolio and to buy some put options on certain overpvied US stocks (Netflix, Tesla, Shopify, Snapchat) but what i really want to explore is the idea of a more systematic Stockopedia NAPS style long/short portfolio whereby we pair the highest ranking stocks in a portfolio with some short positions in the lowest ranking. Watch out for future blog posts on this…

 

So i wrote a post with my NAPs for 2017 but being short of time, and on the whole nervous about the markets i didnt post it. I then resolved to post my NAPS on the basis that i’d be notionally 50% invested, holding the other 50% as cash until a point in the year where i wanted to invest the remainder.

But i still haven’t posted. I just feel too nervous with Brexit, Trump, recession risk in the US etc etc. I know there are alwys things to be worried about and i have no long term experience – i just think i want to to sit out for a while.  I’ve decided to remain ‘in cash’ for the foreseeable future. I may publish my NAPS at some point in the year – else if i dont, my performance should be judged as holding cash against the market.

 

Here are the NAPS i thought about posting for 2017 (as it happens, i would have been up 5%). It’s also worth noting that in my real world portfolio i am still invested, but may well go towards cash at any point. Obviously NAPS are meant to be a but then forget until the period end.
BLVN Bowleven
CAPD Capital Drilling
CRAW Crawshaw
EMR Empresaria
FLYB Flybe
GENL Genel Energy
GYM GYM
HAT H & T
IGG IG Group
ITQ Interquest
NTBR Northern Bear
NTG Northgate
OPHR Ophir Energy
REC Record
RBG Revolution Bars
SAND Sandstorm Gold
SLW Silver Wheaton
SLW Silver Wheaton
STM STM
WTM Waterman
ZMNO Zamano