It’s a year since I created a rules based dummy portfolio which I’ve been tracking on Stockopedia’s fantasy funds. The aim of this was to see if I can’t beat an imagined institutional fund, by only investing in larger companies in an attempt to beat the market.
I also created some other model portfolios with which I want to track long term performance and I’ll try and get round to posting these before their annual review at Christmas.

I’m calling it ‘UK Large Caps StockRanks NAPS’. The rules for the first model portfolio are as follows:

  • Approx 20 companies. Each stock circa 4.5% position.
  • Each company must be >£1billion market cap
  • Pick of 2 stocks from each of Stockopedia’s ten sectors with stockrank >90. If there are none I will relax this to SR>80. If there are still no matches, I will not select a company.

I may choose up to 3 companies above $1m market cap at entirely my own discretion. For the year passed I selected tetragon and Randgold.

So how did I do? A rather disappointing -2.4% slightly under the FTSE350 performance I chose as a benchmark.


There was a broad range of winners and losers.

So on to this year’s picks. Following the rules most sectors gave me very little choice with only 2 or 3 companies within the criteria. Only utilities had less then 1 company with a stock rank above 80. Interestingly this year the selections are less recognisable than last year.
I want gold exposure so I’ve found two miners in Acacia Mining and Centamin from perhaps only 3 gold miners to choose from. I’ve also included IG Group.

 

Fiscal Responsibility

October 9th, 2018 | Posted by shauniekent in Uncategorized - (0 Comments)

I forgot to publish and share but this made me chuckle from the Mcturra blog…. well if you don’t laugh you might cry.

Democracy is doomed

I haven’t posted in a long time and have neglected to post a 2018 NAPS style model portfolio. I explained in my 2017 NAPSesque post that i was nervous about the market and wanted to stay partly in cash. The FTSE 350 actually ended the year c. 8% up whereas my portfolio which was 50% cash ended the year about 1% up! So ultimately  ayear of lost potential gains.

The truth is that i continued to feel nervous at the start of 2018 and didn’t pick a 2018 NAPS portfolio….. but sitting here bearish indefinately is unsatisfactory….

2018 is showing a decline in the FTSE 350 so far. Perhaps a NAPS style portfolio would have outperformed. My wider market nervousness has led me to increase holdings of cash in my personal portfolio and to buy some put options on certain overpvied US stocks (Netflix, Tesla, Shopify, Snapchat) but what i really want to explore is the idea of a more systematic Stockopedia NAPS style long/short portfolio whereby we pair the highest ranking stocks in a portfolio with some short positions in the lowest ranking. Watch out for future blog posts on this…

 

So i wrote a post with my NAPs for 2017 but being short of time, and on the whole nervous about the markets i didnt post it. I then resolved to post my NAPS on the basis that i’d be notionally 50% invested, holding the other 50% as cash until a point in the year where i wanted to invest the remainder.

But i still haven’t posted. I just feel too nervous with Brexit, Trump, recession risk in the US etc etc. I know there are alwys things to be worried about and i have no long term experience – i just think i want to to sit out for a while.  I’ve decided to remain ‘in cash’ for the foreseeable future. I may publish my NAPS at some point in the year – else if i dont, my performance should be judged as holding cash against the market.

 

Here are the NAPS i thought about posting for 2017 (as it happens, i would have been up 5%). It’s also worth noting that in my real world portfolio i am still invested, but may well go towards cash at any point. Obviously NAPS are meant to be a but then forget until the period end.
BLVN Bowleven
CAPD Capital Drilling
CRAW Crawshaw
EMR Empresaria
FLYB Flybe
GENL Genel Energy
GYM GYM
HAT H & T
IGG IG Group
ITQ Interquest
NTBR Northern Bear
NTG Northgate
OPHR Ophir Energy
REC Record
RBG Revolution Bars
SAND Sandstorm Gold
SLW Silver Wheaton
SLW Silver Wheaton
STM STM
WTM Waterman
ZMNO Zamano

Time for a brief review of my 2016 NAPS performance …  overall a 17.8% gain. Not bad at all – not quite last years 24.2% gain but respectable nonetheless. Looking through the individual companies  a stop loss at circa 20% would have saved me from Genel and Fairpoint big losses but on the other hand would have triggered for Empresaria which subsequently recovered.

 

Genel is one of the only oil stocks not to benefit from my correct call that oil wouldn’t stay at $33/barrel. Fairpoint reminded me of the danger in buying into a story. In truth the numbers didn’t match the story – i assumed they would catch up – ie i trusted management. That’s something i’ve learnt not to do without very good reason.

BooHoo had a barnstorming year and personally I sold out at around 80p. Unbelievably its continued onto 130p to my dismay – but the NAPS rule based process meant it was not sold and so contributed nicely to the 17.8% gain.

I’m slightly puzzled why Capital Drilling wasn’t included – it has been my top pick for over a year now and scores highly in the stock ranks. I’ll make sure to include it this year..

2017 NAPS to be published shortly…

Out of interest – if I had kept with my 2015 NAPS I’d have made a 13% loss! The 2016 Naps heatmap looks similar to at the start of the year  -so it’ll be interesting to see how it does in a years time.

I informally keep track of short calls I make on various companies over the last 2 years. I post them all on my own ADVFN thread and log the opening and closing prices in the header. I post in the message box when I open and close a position so the dates and prices can be verified.

So far I’ve done outstandingly well.

32 short calls initiated in 2015 closed. 6 short calls initiated in 2016 closed. Overall i have got 32 correct and 5 where i’ve made a loss. That’s an 86% correct call track record!

43 total slots closed since inception with average profit of 36.8%. For those opened in 2015, average gain was 41.2% and for those opened in 2016 average profit was 32.4%. This ignores positions still open (24 of them)

If anyone else is interested in potential sort calls, do come and discuss them. This thread is a record of my ‘conviction’ shorts -ass opposed to my watchlist which i store in a stockopedia portfolio to keep tabs on.

Note this is a ‘fantasy’ short portfolio. I may have real life positions or may not. I wish they matched exactly as my real world performance has fallen far short of the fantasy portfolio…. More to be revealed in a separate post but safe to say I have learnt much about the art of shorting the last 2 years including sizing positions correctly and trying to second guess the market!