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Share Bear | Tracking portfolio performance & other thoughts. | Page 2

This is the third year of running this portfolio and it’s underperfromed the benchmrk FTSE350. The portfolio returned 2.2% vs FTSE350 24%.

Rubbish! Looking at stockopedia data, the top stockranked companies did outperform in the last year, so it suggests my selections were poor/bad luck.

The 3 worst performers were all gold miners. Perhaps next year they will be the outperformers?

Stockopedia are stopping their fantays funds functionality so i’ll be tracking this fund with their standard portfolio functionality from now on.

A reminder of the portfolio criteria:

  • Approx 20 companies. Each stock circa 4.5% position.
  • Each company must be >£1billion market cap
  • Pick of 2 stocks from each of Stockopedia’s ten sectors with stockrank >90. If there are none I will relax this to SR>80. If there are still no matches, I will not select a company.
  • I may choose up to 3 companies above $1m market cap at entirely my own discretion

The individual company performance for the past year:

This years picks

Following portfolio rules i have selected the below for 2020-21. Nearly every sector had available companies to select except for Telecoms. I picked 2 discretionary pick which was the gold miner Centamin and retailer BooHoo.

Lets see if i can improve on last year.

Bitcoin – A Letter to Investors – Part 2

Performance since part 1

In my previous article I outlined what Bitcoin is and why it is important.

 I gave a summary comparison against other forms of money and suggested ways in which Bitcoin can be viewed above and beyond ‘money’. I also highlighted some common concerns and misconceptions.

The reaction was as expected, some positive comments mixed with overwhelming disbelief, distrust and criticism – most of which I had heard before.

Since then, the Bitcoin price has risen 285% to $31,500. This is not a typo. It has surpassed its previous all time of nearly $20k in December 2017 – continuing a price cycle that has played out several times in the course of it’s history.

A lot has happened within and around Bitcoin in the last 9 months ad in this article I’d like to share a few highlights. We’ve seen developing Capital markets with an increasing number of established funds and investment houses entering the space with significant offerings to clients as well as investments in Bitcoin itself.  Below are a handful of the most compelling and interesting from an investors point of view:

Fidelity (c. $3.3bn AUM) continuing to invest in cryptocurrency

UK based Ruffer Investment Company (£456m investment company) invests n Bitcoin

169 year old MassMutual invests in Bitcoin

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin has the potential to evolve into a “global market” and threaten the U.S. dollar’s status as a reserve currency,status%20as%20a%20reserve%20currency.&text=Developments%20in%20cryptocurrency%20markets%20and,a%20second%20look%20at%20cryptocurrencies.

Some notable investors getting interested:

Stan Druckenmiller buys Bitcoin

Paul Tudor Jones buys Bitcoin

2nd wealthiest man in Mexico owns Bitcoin,-Publisher&text=Ricardo%20Salinas%20Pliego%2C%20Mexico’s%20second,is%20being%20held%20as%20bitcoin.

Ray Dalio, owner of worlds largest Hedge fund and Bitcoin critic admits he ‘might be missing something on Bitcoin’

US Senator openly pro-Bitcoin

And now financial institutions who previously criticised Bitcoin, seem to be joining in on the once ‘ridiculous’ price targets:

The above helps to demonstrate the growing trust in and understanding of Bitcoin as a financial asset. Larger names entering the space has accelerated in the last quarter and before long, given Bitcoins continued price rises, it will become quaint, or even financially ‘irresponsible’ to NOT have Bitcoin exposure.

From an institutional perspective, the start of well known Investing giants entering Bitcoin de-risks Bitcoin from a career perspective. Once you would have been shunned for suggesting Bitcoin. Soon enough the majority will be asking: if Stan Druckenmiller has an opinion and position in Bitcoin, then why don’t you?

Bitcoin as treasury asset

The most significant entrant in 2020 from my perspective is that of Microstrategy, a $3bn market cap US listed tech company headed by CEO Michael Saylor. Saylor has dived headlong into Bitcoin, studying and understanding it before announcing that his company were to convert their existing $450m cash pile into Bitcoin – to protect it from monetary inflation. In a precise and faultless explanation, Saylor described the process of identifying where to park his companies excess reserves, the various asset classes reviewed before settling on Bitcoin.

Here he gives an outline of his firms decision on Fox Business and he can be found explaining in more detail in plenty of interviews elsewhere.

Microstrategy has created an interesting webpage where you can view the return, volatility, sharpe asset of Bitcoin versus other assets at

Why Bitcoin is still a great investment

Many people will be asking why invest now considering the significant recent price rise.

Bitcoin is as compelling an investment now as compared to April 2020. It has the hallmarks of many asymmetric investment opportunities:

  1. Widespread misunderstanding of a subject – Bitcoin is novel and requires time an effort to grasp properly. At first glance, like many, I originally dismissed it.
  2. An emerging and new technology – challenging the status quo and accepted norms. This makes it not only confusing but uncomfortable for some.
  3. Overestimation of risks involved– There are some risks to investing in Bitcoin, but these are often misrepresented or exaggerated by most people – namely due to the first 2 points.

The global market for ‘Store of Value’ is many hundreds of trillions of USD. Bitcoin, currently at $500bn, is still only just getting started.

What can we expect of then next 12 months?

My expectations for the next 12 months include:

  1. More companies to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset. We’ve had Microstrategy, Square and a couple of other small names. Expect well-known names to follow.
  2. Bitcoin price appreciation above $100k. Bitcoin appears to be following previous bull market cycle trends and as such, given scarce supply and growing demand, should send the price well north of $100k, perhaps much higher.
  3. Continued unprecedented central bank intervention in monetary debasement, bond purchases and other asset purchases. Developed economies are saddled by debt, at the zero bound on interest rates, economies ravaged by Covid lockdowns. Monetary intervention will reach new levels previously thought impossible and furthermore I believe we see increased fiscal stimulation.

To Finish

Bitcoin continues to fascinate me. It presents the opportunity to participate in the monetisation of a completely new and entirely digital financial asset, profiting from this but also protecting myself from the spiralling decline of the existing fiat financial system.

I’m happy and willing to help anyone with guidance or Q&A regarding Bitcoin – I appreciate it can be complex upon first approach. I’m also on Twitter @shauniekent

Happy New Year


BTW – I have entered the Stockopedia 2021 stock pick competition – with a number of companies who own or hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet. I will win the competition. See their performance here

Interesting Links

See previous article for beginner starting points to learn about Bitcoin. is a new website displaying key Bitcoin news items alongside performance indicators BTC vs other financial assets. shows Bitcoin performance metrics versus various financial assets.

Model Portfolios for 2021

January 3rd, 2021 | Posted by shauniekent in Uncategorized - (0 Comments)

2021 portfolios selected according to the rules are below. I feel fairly unenthusiastic about them – and found i had little choise when making my discretionary picks or that the companies available seemed uninteresting. We’ll see…

Mech NAPS Short 2021

Mech NAPS Long 2021

NAPS Discretionary Long 2021

NAPS Discretionary Short 2021

Below are the performances of my model portfolios in 2020.

See here for a reminder of their rules and make up.

Its interesting that i did not want to pick Hurricane Energy as a mechanical short, i liked the look of it. It fell over 90% during the year and the mechanical short proved correct!


A poor performance! In the discretionary portfolios i had the longs up 13.2% BUT the shorts were up 54.8%. The complete opposite of what i’d like! The picture is repeated for the mechanical with longs up 1.1% and shorts up 14.5%. Ftse350 was down 13% for the year so when the long and short scores are combined (at their two thirds and one third weighting), the overall discretionary was UP 3.5% ish against FTSE 350 benchmark, the purely mechanical scoring -4.1% for the year is also up against benchmark. So doesnt feel as bad when looking at the benchmark but itstill feels terrible.

Despite the shorts doing better than the longs, it’s interesting to look at the stock ranks even now at the end of the year – for the discretionary portfolios – the long portfolio is still much higher in SR than the short. Interesting.

Detailed Portfolio Returns

Mech NAPS Short 2020

Up 14.5%

Mech NAPS Long 2020

Up 1.1%

NAPS Discretionary Long 2020

Up 13.2%

NAPS Discretionary Short 2020

Portfolio is up 54.8% – a terrible performance! ITM power up over 700% with several others up close to or above 100%.

This is the second full year of running this portfolio and im pleased it has outperformed compared to slight underperformance in it’s first year.

A reminder of the portfolio criteria:

  • Approx 20 companies. Each stock circa 4.5% position.
  • Each company must be >£1billion market cap
  • Pick of 2 stocks from each of Stockopedia’s ten sectors with stockrank >90. If there are none I will relax this to SR>80. If there are still no matches, I will not select a company.
  • I may choose up to 3 companies above $1m market cap at entirely my own discretion

Over 20% outperformance is partly driven by my discretionary choices to invest in gold miner Centamin and stockbroker IG Group which were 4th and 5th best performers.

Note: Acacia mining was bought by Barrick shortly after this years selections were made with shareholders being swapped into Barrick shares. If this was reflected in the portfolio(rather than assuming position frozen at buyout calculated value), this position would havegrown another 60% over the year.

The individual returns look like this:

This years picks

Following portfolio rules i have selected the below for 2020-21. There was only one company available for selection within healthcare and none within telecoms. My discretionary choices were BATS, HOCH & BOO making a total of 20 selections.

A letter to Investors: The Case for Bitcoin

In this article I give an ‘entry level’ overview to people already familiar with investing, as to why I believe Bitcoin is worthy of your attention. I touch superficially on many topics to provide a starting point for your own research and debunk some common misconceptions. Many of you will have heard of Bitcoin already and I ask you to approach with an open mind…


Why was Bitcoin created?

Bitcoin’s very first block in 2009 incorporated a message at the heart of Bitcoin’s purpose.

“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.”

The creator of Bitcoin laid bare their opposition to bank bailouts, the moral hazard involved and set a path towards a new sound money standard. Later in 2011, the creator, who went by the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto, stepped away from Bitcoin leaving it as an entirely open source form of money under no-one’s direct control.

11 years later Bitcoin has grown from a handful of extremely early adopters to an estimated 50 million users, a daily average transaction volume equal to $1 billion USD and the hash rate of the network (a measure of network security) sits near all-time highs. The current price is c. $7,000 USD per Bitcoin with a market capitalisation of c. $133bn.


Who values Bitcoin and why should it be worth anything?

The reason Bitcoin is valuable is because it is money, the best money to have ever existed in fact. Increasing numbers of people are recognising this by asking a question most have never asked – what is money?

Various monies have been used throughout human history as a store and exchange of value across time, space and scale. Money solves problems such as how do economic actors exchange the fruits of their labour, when

  • neither is producing a good that the other wants,
  • neither want to transact at this very moment,
  • or indeed in the quantity offered.

Seashells, cattle, wooden sticks, Rai stones, glass beads, gold and paper have all been used as money in different cultures and during different periods of history. The requisite attributes of ‘good’ money are well understood.

Below shows a comparison across Bitcoin, Gold and Fiat (government issued currency) against these attributes:

(table taken from Vijay Boyapati in ‘The bullish case for Bitcoin’)

The stand out score is Fiat money’s scarcity – F! It is not at all scarce and is created at will by governments around the world.

As well as excelling at the various attributes of ‘good’ money, Bitcoin also solved the Byzantium General’s problem – how to transfer value between two parties without an intermediary. Solving this allowed Bitcoin users the ability to transact peer to peer without requiring trust between them. It also sits at the heart of Bitcoin’s censorship resistance whereby no-one can interfere or interrupt a transaction between two parties.


More than just money

Bitcoin is money to a growing number of people, yet it is also more than just money – as viewed through these various lenses:

  1. Digital gold – a scarce, high stock to flow asset.
  2. The world’s first and only immutable digital asset – no other digital asset can realistically claim they are unable to be copied – like a photo or an mp3 for example. Bitcoin is absolutely unique in this sense.
  3. Payment network – a global network capable of transferring $billions of value daily
  4. A protocol – the protocol for trust-less value exchange. Just as IPv4 became the standard for data packet transfer across networks in 1983 and continues to power the internet today, bitcoin is becoming the de facto protocol for digital exchange of value. Protocols once in place are notoriously difficult to dislodge.
  5. Truth machine – An ultra-secure distributed ledger. Once information is committed to it by way of a transaction, it is permanent and unalterable for all of history.

These different perspectives chime differently with different people. Interestingly Bitcoin appeals much more to the younger generation. A United Kingdom YouGov poll in 2018 found that “one in eleven (9%) 18 to 24 year olds say they have bought the cryptocurrency, compared to one in a hundred (1%) of those aged 55 and above.”

As a digitally native audience, the idea of a digitally native money resonates. As wealth is passed down through the generations, an increasing amount of it will find its way into Bitcoin.


As an investor, why own Bitcoin?

  1. Asymmetric risk reward. Ask yourself if Bitcoin were to become the new global monetary standard, what market capitalisation would be appropriate? Gold has a total capitalisation of c. $8trillion at current prices. If Bitcoin were to match this, divide $8trillion by the 21 million bitcoin fixed supply and you have a price per bitcoin of $380k – 54 times higher than the current c. $7k Bitcoin price. Many would argue that this is conservative with Bitcoin eventually equalling all global monetary bases which again would be many magnitudes higher.

On an expected value calculation – you should invest in Bitcoin if you assign a higher than 1.85% probability of Bitcoin reaching golds market cap. If you are wrong, you may lose 100%, if you are right, you stand to make 5,400%.

  1. Sharpe ratio. The Sharpe ratio is a common metric used in investing to denote the risk-adjusted return of an asset. Bitcoin has a higher ratio which means that you are getting higher returns compared to other assets for the risk taken. If this continues to be the case, there’s a strong argument for an allocation to Bitcoin in your portfolio.

  1. Non correlation. Bitcoin is generally uncorrelated to stock markets. The below chart shows that Bitcoin has historical low correlation to the S&P 500. (1 is correlated and -1 is oppositely correlated). From a portfolio allocation perspective, a prudent investor wants to own uncorrelated assets. If Bitcoin continues to be uncorrelated, then owning some as part of a larger portfolio is entirely sensible.

  1. Inflation Hedge. As a finite and scarce asset Bitcoin can be viewed as an inflation hedge similarly to Gold or other finite assets such as land. With the unprecedented actions governments and central banks around the world are currently taking, there is a growing possibility of inflation or even uncontrollable inflation in the future. Owning Bitcoin may be an insurance policy against this. It is also a hedge against negative interest rates which in previous decades were considered fantasy but are now closer to reality – with interest rates now sitting at next to zero.
  2. Ownership in a new financial system. Bitcoin is a standalone and separate financial system. Global massive investment into ‘on and off ramps’ from fiat currency have been built in the last 2 years allowing greater funds to flow into and out of the Bitcoin network. If Bitcoin’s success continues however, it’s not hard to imagine at some point in the future a world in which Bitcoin becomes a standard denominator of exchange and from a Bitcoin user’s perspective, there being no requirement to interact with fiat currency whatsoever.


But Bitcoin is bad!

In quickfire fashion I tackle a couple of the common myths and misconceptions around Bitcoin that people may have, particularly if they are new to the space.

  1. Terrorist money. Bitcoin is pseudo-anonymous, not anonymous. It’s public record of all transactions actually helps law enforcement track bad actors in many cases. Not to mention that bad actors use all forms of technology including mobile telephony, the internet, transportation, pounds and dollars.
  2. Governments will shut it down. Bitcoin was designed with this in mind. It’s decentralised and open source, running on many thousands of nodes and miners across the globe. As the network grows, the possible forced shut down of any of them becomes increasingly irrelevant. There is no person or organisation in charge. No group or person can be coerced in any way that can stop the Bitcoin network.
  3. Bitcoin is Myspace, the next coin is Facebook. Bitcoin was not the first digital money but was the first successful one. This supposition makes even less sense if you think of Bitcoin as a protocol rather than a company. Protocols once established are difficult to replace, even when a new improved protocol is available. The Lindy effect states that the longer a technology has existed, the higher the probability it will continue to exist. Bitcoin’s 11 year track record is a hurdle any competing money would need to overcome. Finally, the network effects at this point are huge with recognition and mind share amongst consumers, developers and investors increasing relentlessly. The 11 year growth of the network explains the current high security of the network. Any competing money would need to convince possible users to store value in a less secure money – clearly against a rational economic actor’s best interests.
  4. It cannot scale. Think of Bitcoin as the base settlement layer of a new financial system. It exhibits properties of security and trust-lessness and it fulfils these properties vigorously. It could be changed at the base layer to enhance another attribute – for example increasing transaction throughput. But in doing so there would be an engineering trade off and some of the prior attributes would be diminished. Ultra-secure and ultra-fast are mutually exclusive. Bitcoin would become a swiss army knife able to do a lot of things but none very well.

But actually Bitcoin is scaling. There are improvements being made to enhance throughput at the base layer, but the majority of scaling enhancements will come at the second layer and above – these are protocols and applications built on top of Bitcoin. The lightning network is a brilliant example of this – allowing 1 million payments per second! And although still extremely secure, not as tremendously secure as a base layer transaction.

  1. Bitcoin mining uses too much energy – Bitcoin miners spend energy in mining on the bitcoin network as it makes economic sense for them to do so. They perform costly ‘proof of work’ and in doing so contribute to Bitcoins security. But compared to what does it use too much energy? Do we compare to the energy used in servicing the existing financial system or gold mining for example – which are both enormous. This misconception neglects the innovative use of bitcoin mining in reducing oil and gas field waste emissions and in enhancing business cases for renewable power generation which, often in remote locations, have difficulty in selling energy produced back to the grid. This is a whole topic worthy of further investigation.
  2. Volatility makes it worthless – Bitcoin is volatile but in the medium to long term this has been reflected in ever increasing prices. At only $133billion in value it is small compared to other asset classes such as stocks, bonds or foreign exchange which measure in the tens or hundreds of trillions. As Bitcoin grows, expect this volatility to diminish.

Getting Exposure to Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a digital bearer asset and taking self-custody of your own bitcoin at some point is important, however falls outside the scope of this article. At present you can:

  1. Buy Bitcoin on an exchange. There are many well known exchanges with Coinbase being one of the biggest brands globally and CoinFloor being a popular UK based exchange. Once purchased, your Bitcoin resides on the exchange where you have the option to leave it there on the exchange or take self-custody into your own wallet. The most secure and safest method of owning Bitcoin is to take self-custody by using a hardware or ‘cold wallet’.
  2. There are two existing funds: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust based in the United States and Bitcoin Tracker One based in Sweden. Access to these may be possible through a stocks and shares trading account/ISA/SIPP.
  3. Spreadbetting/Contracts for Difference. Companies like IG markets allow you to take a position on the Bitcoin price, albeit it with a high funding cost – so not ideal for long term holding.
  4. Bitcoin ATM. It is possible to exchange cash for Bitcoin at one of many Bitcoin ATM’s around the world, although fees can be in the region of 10%+. Note: using a Bitcoin ATM involves taking immediate self-custody of your Bitcoin.


Final thoughts…

Bitcoin has come a long way in 11 years but is just getting started. There is a huge community of people around the world dedicating their lives to Bitcoin. Their numbers grow and they are absolutely committed to the concept of sound money and the societal and economic improvements this will bring. Through exploring this new technology and dedicating many hundreds of hours to understanding the space, I now count myself amongst them.

Hopefully this article has provided ideas for further investigation on your own part, satisfying any burgeoning curiosity. Below is a handful of places you may like to start for further research.


Raoul Pal (Real Vision) and Dan Tapiero (DTAP Capital) discuss Bitcoin from a macro and institutional investors perspective

Vijay Boyapati outlines The bullish case for Bitcoin in early 2018

Jameson Lopp with a number of links to Bitcoin investment thesis’s and approaches to valuation

‘Bitcoin for beginners’ YouTube playlist from Anton Antonopoulos – one of the space’s foremost thinkers

Bitcoin Wiki page

And finally, one of the best known Bitcoin related podcasts, Peter recently recorded a season of interviews aimed at newcomers to Bitcoin. Start with the first 2 episodes and you’ll be gripped