I forgot to post that i added to my CAPD position 2 days ago. Fortunately as the trading update i was pre-empting came out early – today! I read it as good and so did the market – up nearly 10% today.

http://m.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/mobile/news/detail…

The key points are:
There was a slowdown towards end of yr, ‘but fear of decreasing capital expenditure by miners is over done here:

‘We have also received confirmation of drilling activities from clients representing approximately 90% of our forecast revenue for 2013.”

They have planned reduction in capex 2013 which was 30m this yr. So next year if revenue is anything like this years, they will be throwing off cash, enough to fully pay off the modest 22m pounds of debt.

It was on a p/e of under 4, so its still cheap. I’m aiming for this to double and am happy to hold this long term.

Here is a good article explaining CAPE. CAPE is basically a way of telling how reasonably priced the whole market is. At the top of a bubble CAPE will be high, and in a slump, low.

If this was boiled down to one lesson it would mean to take caution when CAPE is high, be greedy when others are fearful ie when CAPE is low. This is because historically CAPE returns to its long run average.

An alternative approach to stock market forecasts

UK Value Investor is a great site for those wishing to beat the market investing in large FTSE companies but with little effort. I think there might be a small subscription charge but Johns Kingham’s methods are pure common sense.

I bought some SIGG on Friday after seeing a tweet about it. I’m writing this up quick so i’m vague on the details but go look for yourself. They are a closed fund that hasn’t done too well since it started several years ago. The share price has drifted and now stands a whole lot lower than the NAV. The NAV is 92p or thereabouts and the price to buy is about 55p. Ok so this disconnect between NAV and SP might continue forever…. but we have a potential catalyst.

They announced last year that they were wrapping up and liquidating the fund!! Great news for shareholders. The only catch is it will take a while. Around 35% is planned to be liquidated over 2013 and beyond that timescales are not known. Still there could be a cash return soon and this could spark interest and a narrowing of the SP and NAV.

Limited downside and lots of upside!!

GKP purchase

January 11th, 2013 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions - (0 Comments)

I’ve added to my Gulf Keystone Petroleum position. Price is travelling upwards over the last few day and i dont see that stopping for now. A lot of short positions are open on this company so i think a bit of a short squeeze will mean the price keeps rising. I think a bit of attention in the newspapers etc over the weekend could help too.

This is my largest portfolio position at present.

I’ve just finished the chapter in Joel Greenblatts book on Spin-offs and how the canny private investor can profit from them. I did a quick google for ”spin off lse” today and noticed the Cookson group has very recently split into two new companies – Vesuvius and Alent. One is to do with steel, the other ceramics/chemicals i believe. A cursory glance is all i’ve given to this situation to see if Joel’s principles could apply in this spin off situation. The answer is that they do not. Both new companies have large market caps and so are accessible to an institutional investor. This eliminates the small investor advantge.

That’s not to say that either company may not be a good investment on its own merit, but that the opportunity inherent from a specific type of spin off can not be found here on account of the large market caps of both new companies. Never mind, at least i’m putting my new analytical skills into practice.

 

This made me chuckle, which from below would prove a most profitable investment since a year and a half ago:

  • Delta Airlines
  •  AIG insurance company
  • Lehman Brothers
  • Northern Rock
  • Buying and drinking beer

Lessons in Investing