Author Archives: shauniekent

A good day!

December 14th, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions | Personal - (0 Comments)

Not often i see this, just the one share letting me down today 🙂

CORRECTION: Carpetright is a short so not so good there – anyway, 7/9 is good enough for me.

http://share-bear.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/day-change-happy.png

 

 

Ok, for those that haven’t heard of PV Crystalox (PVCS) already, here is my summary and the reasons I am invested. I read it as a great opportunity to double your money in 6-9 months.

BRIEF summary: Cash rich company preparing radical restructure and cash return to shareholders 2Q2013.

All figures in Euros.

Background: They are a manufacturer of multicrystalline silicon ingots and wafers. Business took a huge nose dive after cheap Chinese exports flooded the market. Prices fell. Over the last year they cut production, tightened their belts and planned to weather the storm, limping along until global prices picked up in the medium to long term. Share price diving all the while.

Results for 6 months ended 30th June showed….

  • Net assets (majority tangeable) just under 200m
  • Of which 122m euros is cash! (mostly won in court settlement from customer contract cut short).
  • Tiny Pension surplus
  • 32.6m 1H2012 sales,
  • 12.2m EBIT loss on 61mw shipments,(full yr shpments expected to be 100-120mw)

There are another 2 on-going claims but one defendant probably unlikely to pay. I do not know the size of these claims or what payout they could be. From the RNS:

“We have been unable to reach a satisfactory agreement with two long-term contract customers who have been amongst the industry leaders in recent years and we are seeking resolution under the jurisdiction of the International Court of Arbitration. While successful judgements in the Group’s favour are anticipated there is increasing uncertainty as to whether one of these companies will have the financial resources to fully settle its claim.”

They repeated “make the necessary decisions during the remainder of the year to serve the best interests of shareholders.”

19th November Management Statement marks a change in tone from management – importantly they mention return of cash.

“The Group has a strong net cash balance and the Board is continuing to reorganise the Group, to enable the return of cash to shareholders. The Board expects to make a further announcement before the year end.”

Reduced full year volumes expected 100-105mw

And then bingo!

13th December Trading Statement http://www.pvcrystalox.com/scripts/php/rns_viewer.php?id=20563710

“The Board has now completed a strategic review of the business which has taken account of these adverse market conditions and the Group’s significant net cash balance. The outcome of this review is that the Group will carry out a radical restructuring while retaining its core production capabilities and returning excess cash to shareholders.”

“The Group intends to adjust its operations to align with anticipated sustainable short term market demand so that the ongoing business will be broadly cash neutral in 2013.”

“The Group expects to return cash to shareholders during Q2 2013 in a manner that will provide shareholders with an element of choice as to the form in which they receive the cash. Further details on the process will be announced in due course.”

So if we take a guestimate loss for second half 2012 of 20m this leaves cash of around 100m euros at year end. Company planning to be cash neutral in 2013 which I’m guessing means they won’t be burning cash and so will have much reduced need for a cash cushion. They intend to close one German factory and reduce yet further UK and German production. If we say money raised from factory closure/asset sales matches restructuring costs then we still have 100m cash, a company with around 80m net non cash assets and a current market cap of ÂŁ40m at 9.5p (about 50m euros mkt cap and 11.7 cents – at ÂŁ0.81/euro)

So we have twice the current share price in cash and once again in tangible assets. They could give away half their cash and you would still be holding the shares and business/assets for free. The remaining court cases could provide an added bonus.

The question remains of course just how much cash they give away but management has certainly changed strategy and language from ‘conserve’ to ‘return’ cash. I’m invested here but would like to hear from others before I plough more in.

 

Shaun

Capital Drilling – CAPD – BUY

December 13th, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions | Oppurtunity - (0 Comments)

I’ve bought some capital drilling this morning after Centamin CEY suspended operatinos in Egypt. CAPD do provide services to CEY but they also have many other customers. The drop of 40% seems well overdone. Admittedly this is only a quick glance but the company seems profitable, has varied customers and i expect some sot of share price recovery sooner rather than later. Additionally we do not know the cost, if any from suspended work for CEY in Egypt. My guess would be that CEY will still have to pay some sort of fees to CAPD.

In at 16.19p

Remember these are all personal best guesses with my own money. Hopefully this website will show how profitable investing has been for me. But of course it might just show the opposite :-/

PVCS – PV Crystalox Solar – BUY!

December 13th, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions | Oppurtunity - (0 Comments)

Statement out today that indeed they plan to return cash to shareholders.

Restructuring, job losses, planning to be cash neutral next year all make me bullish about significant cash return. I have topped up on the fall, which i am very surprised about. Investors taking profits and knee jerk reactions to the loss for the year which is farily unimportant. This is a cash and assets play, ideally for shareholders the company would cease trading and liquidate.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11427622

Nostra Terra Oil – NTOG – Punt

December 11th, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions | Oppurtunity - (0 Comments)

I bought in to Nostra Terra on a punt today at 0.45p. Naughty i know but a well known private investor was tipping on twitter and after a cursory review of the investment case i jumped in. Essentially they had positive well results today and are expecting expecting well results for nearby drills very soon (next month). NTOG have a higher stake in nearby drills. If there is read across then the nearby drills will be successful and this will be a strong catalyst.

Buying miners – Snappy Intro Series

November 30th, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in Uncategorized - (0 Comments)

Buying miners

What i’ve learnt

  • Firstly, help yourself to a large dose of scepticism. Seriously. Small mining companies and explorers seem to constantly over exaggerate potential, timescales and underestimate costs. This leads to the market being dissapointed and confidence in the company reduced. It also leads to cost over runs, running out of cash and having to refinance/take on debt/issue more shares – all bad news for shareholders.
  •  Explorers are speculative, with timescales being in years before a mine goes through all the required tests and gains the required permissions.
  • There are mega caps like Rio Tinto (more correlated to global output/need for raw materials)and there are of course tiddlers with perhaps one mine somewhere they are pinning their hopes on.
  • Miners are correlated with commodity prices. if the company mines copper, then expect its share price to correlate to the price of copper over time.
  • Finally i have found some interesting looking miners, only to later discover some complex and confusing financial arrangements that exist where profit or assets are shared/split/part owned by another entity. Far too confusing for anyone other than an expert and often the financial arrangements may be hidden in RNS stories from way back.

There is an interesting article over on Investors Chronicle about mining companies and how such a small % are successful.

In summary, i’d have to have some very compelling reasons to invest in small miners. Hopefully i’ve dampened any mining risk taking tendencies you may have – just as i did(do!). It’s far to had to judge the risks and potential rewards unless you are experienced in this sector. My only mining position ever is Frontier Mining who i believe are priced cheaply due to poor expectations management/communication with shareholders. They are just starting to produce and i’m hoping i bought in on a low with plenty of upside as they increase (hopefully) production. I couldn’t find any nasties lurking but you never know…