Review of recent trades

December 21st, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions - (0 Comments)

I’ve been busy starting a new job recently so not had time to blog often but I wanted to do a little round up of recent trades as I’ve been quite successful J

I bought more PVCS as outlined previously. These have seen a decent little rise but im holding tight as I expect more to come.

NTOG bought on a twitter tip has risen 6% and I’m still waiting on the news due soon about two other wells which if positive could spark a big gain.

CAPD has been the star performer and my best ever return. Up 60% (!!!) since buying on Centamins Egyptian problems where it dropped an inexplicable 40%. Centamin has things running again in Egypt and predictably CAPD has recovered well. It is still undervalued by many measures so im continuing to hold. Credit goes to WShak the motley fool boards heavy weight who drew my attention to this one.

My other held shares in GKP have continued to drift downwards, I hope to buy more soon because the court case looks weak and ceteris parabus these will jump on the court case result.

Carpetright continues to defy all known market efficiency theories. Its worth a fraction of its current value. This is undeniable. Recent poor results haven’t knocked it though so im still holding on for the day they fall through the floor…  I might be old and grey first.

Frontier Mining FML – is trickling down unendingly. Poor sentiment about this company and lack of news + mine shut down for the winter have left this drifting. I do believe when production restarts q2 next year these will be higher. Im also thinking of adding more at these prices but I think it will drift lower yet.

A good day!

December 14th, 2012 | Posted by shauniekent in My positions | Personal - (0 Comments)

Not often i see this, just the one share letting me down today 🙂

CORRECTION: Carpetright is a short so not so good there – anyway, 7/9 is good enough for me.

http://share-bear.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/day-change-happy.png

 

 

Ok, for those that haven’t heard of PV Crystalox (PVCS) already, here is my summary and the reasons I am invested. I read it as a great opportunity to double your money in 6-9 months.

BRIEF summary: Cash rich company preparing radical restructure and cash return to shareholders 2Q2013.

All figures in Euros.

Background: They are a manufacturer of multicrystalline silicon ingots and wafers. Business took a huge nose dive after cheap Chinese exports flooded the market. Prices fell. Over the last year they cut production, tightened their belts and planned to weather the storm, limping along until global prices picked up in the medium to long term. Share price diving all the while.

Results for 6 months ended 30th June showed….

  • Net assets (majority tangeable) just under 200m
  • Of which 122m euros is cash! (mostly won in court settlement from customer contract cut short).
  • Tiny Pension surplus
  • 32.6m 1H2012 sales,
  • 12.2m EBIT loss on 61mw shipments,(full yr shpments expected to be 100-120mw)

There are another 2 on-going claims but one defendant probably unlikely to pay. I do not know the size of these claims or what payout they could be. From the RNS:

“We have been unable to reach a satisfactory agreement with two long-term contract customers who have been amongst the industry leaders in recent years and we are seeking resolution under the jurisdiction of the International Court of Arbitration. While successful judgements in the Group’s favour are anticipated there is increasing uncertainty as to whether one of these companies will have the financial resources to fully settle its claim.”

They repeated “make the necessary decisions during the remainder of the year to serve the best interests of shareholders.”

19th November Management Statement marks a change in tone from management – importantly they mention return of cash.

“The Group has a strong net cash balance and the Board is continuing to reorganise the Group, to enable the return of cash to shareholders. The Board expects to make a further announcement before the year end.”

Reduced full year volumes expected 100-105mw

And then bingo!

13th December Trading Statement http://www.pvcrystalox.com/scripts/php/rns_viewer.php?id=20563710

“The Board has now completed a strategic review of the business which has taken account of these adverse market conditions and the Group’s significant net cash balance. The outcome of this review is that the Group will carry out a radical restructuring while retaining its core production capabilities and returning excess cash to shareholders.”

“The Group intends to adjust its operations to align with anticipated sustainable short term market demand so that the ongoing business will be broadly cash neutral in 2013.”

“The Group expects to return cash to shareholders during Q2 2013 in a manner that will provide shareholders with an element of choice as to the form in which they receive the cash. Further details on the process will be announced in due course.”

So if we take a guestimate loss for second half 2012 of 20m this leaves cash of around 100m euros at year end. Company planning to be cash neutral in 2013 which I’m guessing means they won’t be burning cash and so will have much reduced need for a cash cushion. They intend to close one German factory and reduce yet further UK and German production. If we say money raised from factory closure/asset sales matches restructuring costs then we still have 100m cash, a company with around 80m net non cash assets and a current market cap of £40m at 9.5p (about 50m euros mkt cap and 11.7 cents – at £0.81/euro)

So we have twice the current share price in cash and once again in tangible assets. They could give away half their cash and you would still be holding the shares and business/assets for free. The remaining court cases could provide an added bonus.

The question remains of course just how much cash they give away but management has certainly changed strategy and language from ‘conserve’ to ‘return’ cash. I’m invested here but would like to hear from others before I plough more in.

 

Shaun

I’ve bought some capital drilling this morning after Centamin CEY suspended operatinos in Egypt. CAPD do provide services to CEY but they also have many other customers. The drop of 40% seems well overdone. Admittedly this is only a quick glance but the company seems profitable, has varied customers and i expect some sot of share price recovery sooner rather than later. Additionally we do not know the cost, if any from suspended work for CEY in Egypt. My guess would be that CEY will still have to pay some sort of fees to CAPD.

In at 16.19p

Remember these are all personal best guesses with my own money. Hopefully this website will show how profitable investing has been for me. But of course it might just show the opposite :-/

Statement out today that indeed they plan to return cash to shareholders.

Restructuring, job losses, planning to be cash neutral next year all make me bullish about significant cash return. I have topped up on the fall, which i am very surprised about. Investors taking profits and knee jerk reactions to the loss for the year which is farily unimportant. This is a cash and assets play, ideally for shareholders the company would cease trading and liquidate.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=11427622

I bought in to Nostra Terra on a punt today at 0.45p. Naughty i know but a well known private investor was tipping on twitter and after a cursory review of the investment case i jumped in. Essentially they had positive well results today and are expecting expecting well results for nearby drills very soon (next month). NTOG have a higher stake in nearby drills. If there is read across then the nearby drills will be successful and this will be a strong catalyst.